Tuesday, February 09, 2010

A prediction for the future from the past

Check this out...

The hope of the future does not rest, as commonly believed, in winning the people of the "buffer fringe" to one superpower or the other, but rather in the invention of new weapons and tactics that will be so cheap to obtain and so easy to use that they will increase the effectiveness of guerrilla warfare so greatly that the employment of our present weapons of mass destruction will become futile, and on this basis there can be a revival of democracy and of political decentralization in all three parts of our present world. This possible development in political and military matters, would, of course, require the development of decentralized economic techniques such as would arise if sunlight became the chief energy source for production and the advancement of science made it possible to manufacture any desired substance by molecular rearrangement....

Now this was written in 1961!!! It seems to be that it argues that big weapon systems will becomes pointless - which is happening as proliferation grows and the scenario of mutually assured destruction arises. But also the use of non-state forces - i.e. terrorism - to wave war means that such weapons are useless because how can you nuke a tiny cell of people that might only number 10 hiding within your own city? Answer - you can't. It's also prescient because it envisions the decentralization of power (economic/energy) that seems to be about to happen. Very interesting...

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