Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Peak Oil: Output peaked in 2006

Yet another study is here to show that our oil use is going to decline - like it or not. This one is more interesting in that it is based on actual production rates and not estimated reserves (as most government's estimates are) which make it a more reliable guide as it less subject to political pressure. For example OPEC countries have their production quota based on their estimated reserves, thus they often over-estimate the reserves so they can pump more oil onto the market. The price of oil also back the findings of this research, at the end of September 2003, oil was around $25 per barrel and it is now at $80+ per barrel and shows no sign of dropping back to its 'normal' market price. Here's what the report says:

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

What is also important is, for all those backing nuclear as an option, how much Uranium is left;

It also predicts significant falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are used up.

It's time to re-think society, me thinks....

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